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Matthew Collins
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The Rise and Fall of Emerging Markets: Ruchir Sharma's Breakout Nations PDF Download


# Breakout Nations by Ruchir Sharma: A Book Review - Introduction - What is the book about and who is the author? - What is the main argument of the book and why is it relevant? - What are the main sources of information and evidence used by the author? - Summary of the book - How does the author define breakout nations and what are his criteria for identifying them? - What are the main factors that determine the success or failure of emerging markets? - What are some of the examples of breakout nations and laggards according to the author? - Critical analysis of the book - What are the strengths and weaknesses of the book? - How convincing and original is the author's argument and evidence? - How does the book compare to other books or sources on the same topic? - Conclusion - What are the main takeaways and implications of the book for readers and investors? - What are some of the limitations and challenges of the book's approach and perspective? - What are some of the questions and topics for further research and exploration? ## Breakout Nations by Ruchir Sharma: A Book Review Introduction The global economy is undergoing a major transformation, with emerging markets playing a crucial role in shaping the future. However, not all emerging markets are created equal, and some will perform better than others in the coming years. How can we identify which countries will become the next economic stars, and which ones will falter or stagnate? This is the question that Ruchir Sharma, a writer and head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley, tries to answer in his best-selling book, Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles. In this book, Sharma draws on his two decades of experience in traveling, investing, and analyzing these countries, to offer his insights and predictions on which nations will thrive, and which ones will disappoint, in a world reshaped by the crisis of 2008. Sharma's main argument is that we need to abandon our current obsession with global macro trends and all-encompassing theories, such as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) or the Next Eleven (N-11), that assume that all emerging markets will grow at a similar pace and follow a similar path. Instead, he argues that we need to look at each country as an individual case, with its own strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and challenges. He also argues that we need to apply some common sense rules for spotting success stories, such as looking at political stability, economic diversity, demographic trends, social mobility, quality of leadership, and public opinion. Sharma's main sources of information and evidence are his own observations and anecdotes from his travels in these countries, as well as data and statistics from various sources, such as the World Bank, IMF, UNDP, Transparency International, Gallup, Pew Research Center, etc. He also cites other books and articles by experts and journalists on these topics. Summary of the book Sharma defines breakout nations as those that can grow faster than their peers in their income class over a sustained period of time. He also defines laggards as those that fall behind their peers in their income class over a sustained period of time. He uses four income classes based on per capita GDP: low income (less than $5,000), lower middle income ($5,000-$10,000), upper middle income ($10,000-$20,000), and high income (more than $20,000). Sharma identifies several factors that determine the success or failure of emerging markets. Some of these factors are: - The law of large numbers: This means that the larger an economy becomes, the harder it is to grow at a fast rate. For example, China's economy is so large that it needs to add an equivalent of Greece's GDP every year to maintain its growth rate. - The commodity cycle: This means that countries that depend heavily on exporting commodities tend to boom when commodity prices are high, but bust when they fall. For example, Russia's economy is highly dependent on oil exports, which makes it vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. - The middle income trap: This means that countries that reach a certain level of income per capita tend to slow down or stagnate in their growth due to various challenges such as rising wages, declining competitiveness, social unrest, environmental degradation, etc. For example, Brazil's economy has been struggling to grow beyond its middle income status for decades. - The demographic dividend: This means that countries that have a large and young population tend to have a higher potential for growth, as they can provide a large and cheap labor force, as well as a large and growing consumer market. For example, India's population is expected to surpass China's by 2027, and it has a median age of 28, compared to China's 38. - The quality of governance: This means that countries that have stable, democratic, and accountable governments tend to perform better than those that have authoritarian, corrupt, or incompetent governments. For example, Poland's economy has been one of the most resilient and successful in Europe, thanks to its political and economic reforms since the end of communism. Sharma provides several examples of breakout nations and laggards according to his criteria. Some of these examples are: - Breakout nations: Indonesia, Turkey, South Korea, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Czech Republic, Nigeria, Kenya, etc. - Laggards: China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, Pakistan, Hungary, Venezuela, etc. Critical analysis of the book The book has several strengths and weaknesses. Some of the strengths are: - It is written in an engaging and accessible style, with many anecdotes and stories from the author's travels and interactions in these countries. - It provides a fresh and nuanced perspective on emerging markets, challenging some of the conventional wisdom and popular narratives on these topics. - It offers some useful and practical rules and tips for identifying and investing in breakout nations, as well as avoiding or exiting laggards. Some of the weaknesses are: - It relies heavily on the author's personal opinions and judgments, which may be biased or subjective. - It does not provide enough data or evidence to support some of the claims or predictions made by the author. - It does not address some of the important issues or challenges that affect emerging markets, such as climate change, inequality, human rights, etc. The author's argument and evidence are convincing and original to some extent. He makes a compelling case for why we need to look at each country individually and not rely on broad categories or labels. He also provides some interesting insights and forecasts on some of the countries that he covers. However, he also makes some questionable or controversial claims or assumptions that may not hold true in the long run. For example, he argues that China's growth will slow down significantly due to its debt burden, aging population, environmental problems, etc., but he does not consider the possibility that China may overcome or mitigate some of these challenges through innovation, reform, or cooperation. He also argues that the US and some parts of Europe will regain their competitive edge over emerging markets due to their technological prowess and adaptability, but he does not consider the possibility that emerging markets may catch up or surpass them in these areas through learning, imitation, or collaboration. The book compares favorably to other books or sources on the same topic. It is more comprehensive and balanced than some of the books that focus on specific regions or countries (such as The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs or The Bottom Billion by Paul Collier), or those that promote a single theory or framework (such as The Rise and Fall of Nations by Ruchir Sharma or The World is Flat by Thomas Friedman). It is also more updated and relevant than some of the books that were written before or during the global financial crisis (such as The World is Curved by David Smick or The Post-American World by Fareed Zakaria). Conclusion The main takeaways and implications of the book for readers and investors are: - Emerging markets are not a homogeneous group and they will have different trajectories and outcomes in the future. - We need to look at each country individually and apply some common sense rules for spotting success stories and avoiding failures. - We need to be flexible and adaptable in our expectations and strategies for investing in emerging markets. Some of the limitations and challenges of the book's approach and perspective are: - It may be too reliant on the author's personal opinions and judgments, which may be biased or subjective. - It may not provide enough data or evidence to support some of the claims or predictions made by the author. - It may not address some of the important issues or challenges that affect emerging markets, such as climate change, inequality, human rights, etc. Some of the questions and topics for further research and exploration are: - How will emerging markets cope with the impact of climate change on their economies and societies? - How will emerging markets reduce inequality and improve human rights within their countries and regions? - How will emerging markets collaborate with each other and with developed countries on global issues such as trade, security, health, etc.? FAQs Q: What is a breakout nation? A: A breakout nation is a country that can grow faster than its peers in its income class over a sustained period of time. Q: What are some of the rules for spotting success stories in emerging markets? A: Some of the rules are: look for countries that have low debt, high savings, diversified exports, stable politics, young demographics, social mobility, good leadership, and positive public opinion. Q: What are some of the examples of breakout nations and laggards according to the author? A: Some of the examples of breakout nations are: Indonesia, Turkey, South Korea, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Czech Republic, Nigeria, Kenya, etc. Some of the examples of laggards are: China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, Pakistan, Hungary, Venezuela, etc. Q: How does the book compare to other books or sources on the same topic? A: The book is more comprehensive and balanced than some of the books that focus on specific regions or countries, or those that promote a single theory or framework. It is also more updated and relevant than some of the books that were written before or during the global financial crisis. Q: What are some of the limitations and challenges of the book's approach and perspective? A: Some of the limitations and challenges are: it may be too reliant on the author's personal opinions and judgments, which may be biased or subjective. It may not provide enough data or evidence to support some of the claims or predictions made by the author. It may not address some of the important issues or challenges that affect emerging markets, such as climate change, inequality, human rights, etc. Q: What are some of the questions and topics for further research and exploration? A: Some of the questions and topics are: how will emerging markets cope with the impact of climate change on their economies and societies? How will emerging markets reduce inequality and improve human rights within their countries and regions? How will emerging markets collaborate with each other and with developed countries on global issues such as trade, security, health, etc.?




breakout nations by ruchir sharma pdf free download

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